EUR/USD: Why the Next Two Weeks will be Decisive

ForexNewsNow | Published on September 27, 2011 at 4:36 am

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ForexNewsNow – Several major political and economic events related to the ongoing euro zone debt crisis and global economic recession are set to take place in Europe within the next two weeks. The course of these events may have a strong impact on the value of the euro.

Here is an overview of the events set to take place:

  • September 29th:

The German parliament, the Bundestag, is to vote on the extension of the powers and mandate of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) on Thursday. It is one of the key measures agreed upon in the second Greek bailout plan that was established by the European Council of Heads of State and Government of the euro area on July 21st.

Berlin is the largest contributor to the program and the process of ratification by the 17 euro zone national parliaments will last until October 11th with Slovakia’s vote. Once all members have ratified it, the fund, established in May of 2010, will be able to both buy bonds on the secondary market – in place of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and help banks recapitalize.

  • Early October:

The Troika, comprised of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, is to release its report on Greece’s ability to reduce its budget deficit – a decision that will obviously be of high interest to forex market participants.

  • October 5th and 19th:

General strikes in Greece have been called for on these two dates. The austerity measures the government of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has enacted have elicited strong opposition and popular mobilization has strengthened in recent weeks. Calls for a boycott of taxes are one example of the popular reaction. How will the EUR/USD pair digest this massive rejection of efforts to end the Greek crisis?

  • October 6th:

A monetary policy meeting is scheduled to take place after which the European Central Bank could, according to market analysts, decide whether the institution will lower its key interest rate or not. This highly expected decision might also lead ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to announce the possibility of providing more liquidity to financial institutions in the long term.


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