AUD/USD Outlook for This Week (January 10-14th)

ForexNewsNow | Published on January 10, 2011 at 5:44 pm

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NEW YORK (Forex News Now) – AUD/USD fell -2.7% last week after making a post-1983 float high the previous week as the U.S. employment picture improved and gold prices fell.

An intraday analysis of AUD/USD’s price action shows that the rate traded generally softer last week off of its 1.0223 high seen on Monday and fell back below parity to its Friday low of 0.9906, before then bouncing to end the week at 0.9964.

Technical Outlook for AUD/USD

AUD/USD is currently hovering above the lower support line of a key bullish medium term upward channel now drawn at 0.9850, with a rising top line currently drawn at 1.0803. Also, another mildly rising medium term trend line potentially offers resistance that is currently at the 1.0261 level. The outlook remains bullish from a chart pattern perspective provided that AUD/USD remains within its prevailing up channel.

Furthermore, last week’s price action remained well above AUD/USD’s 200-day Moving Average, which now reads at 0.9297. The indicator also has a positive slope that yields a bullish medium term outlook for the pair.

In addition, the rate’s key 14-day RSI seems to have broken its recent upwards trend. This indicator has normalized its former overbought condition and now reads in the central part of neutral territory at 48 that should not impede a move in either direction.

Initial resistance for the rate is seen at 0.9991 and 1.0028 around the psychological 1.0000 parity level, and then above that at 1.0065, 1.0151, 1.0197 and 1.0255. Support for AUD/USD is indicated at 0.9906, in the 0.9810/96 region and at 0.9752.

Overall if trend line support currently being test holds, AUD/USD may well see new highs again in the coming weeks.

This Week’s Economic Data Calendar for AUD/USD

The fx trading news will now be watching the following chronological list of key data releases for the United States and Australia due out during the coming week of January 10th to the 14th: The likely highlights will be the Australian Employment Report out on Wednesday, the U.S. PPI numbers scheduled for Thursday, plus Friday’s U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data.

Monday, January 10th

U.S. Treasury Currency Report (tentative)

Aus. ANZ Job Advertisements +2.9% previous

Aus. Trade Balance +2.03B expected +2.63B previous

Tuesday, January 11th

FOMC Members Plosser and Kocherlakota talk in Philadelphia and Madison respectively.

Aus. Home Loans -0.9% expected 1.9% previous

Wednesday, January 12th

U.S. Import Prices +1.3% expected +1.3% previous

U.S. Fed’s Beige Book

U.S. Federal Budget Balance -150.4B previous

Aus. Employment Change 25.3K expected 54.6K previous

Aus. Unemployment Rate 5.1% expected 5.2% previous

Thursday, January 13th

U.S. Trade Balance -41.2B expected -38.7B previous

U.S. PPI +0.8% expected +0.8% previous

U.S. Core PPI +0.2% expected +0.3% previous

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims +405K expected +409K previous

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke talks in Arlington

Friday, January 14th

U.S. Core Retail Sales +0.7% expected +1.2% previous

U.S. Retail Sales +0.8% expected 0.8% previous

U.S. CPI +0.4% expected +0.1% previous

U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate 75.6% expected 75.2% previous

U.S. Industrial Production +0.5% expected +0.4% previous

U.S. Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment 75.6 expected 74.5 previous

U.S. Business Inventories +0.7% expected +0.7% previous

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