EUR Analysis: Expectations for GDP Growth for Germany, France, and Italy

ForexNewsNow | Published on November 11, 2010 at 3:41 pm

eu euro eur euro forex currency economyNEW YORK (Forex News Now) – Currency market trading is set for a round of major economic news tomorrow, as Germany, France, and Italy announce QoQ and YoY GDP growth figures.  The estimates will undoubtedly impact the euro and any unexpected developments could increase – or decrease – the expected 1.9% euro zone GDP figure set to be announced later tomorrow.

We will take a look at the prospects for each country’s GDP reports – quarter on quarter and year on year – and then estimate what the figures will mean for the euro zone’s GDP report and the performance of the euro.

Germany

Germany will announce its GDP figures for the quarter and year at 2:00 AM EST. Earlier this week, Germany’s council of independent economic advisors – termed the “five wise men” by the trading community – announced that it expects GDP growth for Germany to reach 3.7% for 2010 – a robust number dramatically higher than the council’s 1.6% estimate for 2010 given in November of last year.

Part of the estimate assumes that ECB will not change its interest rates until near the end of 2011.

Consensus estimates for Germany’s reports are in line with the council’s analysis. Currency market trading analysts largely predict that QoQ growth will come in at 0.8%, while YoY growth will register at 3.7%.  Both are positive numbers that should help to move the euro upwards.

France

French estimates paint a picture that is considerably less than the rosy outlook for German GDP, but still quite positive.  Although the consensus estimate is that QoQ growth will decline from a previous 0.7% to 0.5% for the third quarter, the YoY growth rate should rise from 1.7% to 1.9%.

The Bank of France further predicted that 4Q growth will also come in at 0.5%.  This comes on the back of rising confidence in France’s industry sector for the second straight month.

France will announce its GDP report at 1:30 AM EST.

Italy

Finally, Italy will report its GDP figures for the third quarter QoQ and YoY – and will likely report disappointing numbers unlike its two larger counterparts. Currency market trading experts predict that Italian GDP for the quarter will drop from 0.5% to 0.4% on a QoQ basis, and will fall from 1.3% to 1.2% on a YoY basis.

Fortunately for the euro, Italy does not have nearly as much of an influence on the strength of the currency as Germany and France, so the positive numbers from these two countries could outweigh what the Italian numbers will mean.

Overall, though, European GDP growth is expected to expand at a slower pace in 3Q10 than in previous quarters this year, with a 0.5% estimate compared to a previous 1.0% figure for the second quarter.

Those trading on this report should be cautious of a bearish bias if the GDP report comes in as planned – and unless the three major reports outlined above come in higher than expected, chances are the overall estimate will be spot on. However, higher-than-expected numbers for Germany, France, and Italy could mean that 3Q10 numbers for the euro zone are stronger than expected – which could be a buying opportunity for a surprising surge.

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