Forecast: How will Australia trade balance impact AUD/USD?

ForexNewsNow | Published on October 4, 2010 at 4:12 pm

Australia trade balance  - A manufacturing workerNEW YORK (Forex News Now) – Australia’s statistics bureau is due on Tuesday to release a key report on the country’s trade balance in August, in one of the day’s major realtime forex news events.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to say that the country’s trade surplus widened to AUG 2.31 billion during the month, from AUD 1.89 billion in July, according to two currency market trading news outlets.

The bureau is scheduled to publish the data at 12:30 A.M. GMT; as such, the report is likely to dominate Asian online FX trading – at least until the Bank of Japan makes a key interest rate decision a few hours afterward.

According to indicator analysis, if the surplus widens less than forecast, shrinks, or even swings to deficit, the report could push AUD/USD toward support around the low of Sept. 24, 0.9462.

But should the data show that the surplus widened more than expected, the currency pair could be could be lifted toward resistance around last Friday’s high, 0.9749.

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