Currency
by Charlie Roberts on October 22nd, 2020

USD/TRY Continues Uptrend – What Are the Main Reasons?

As the recent movements on the market show, the prices of the currency pair USD/TRY are up again. The price of the currency pair is now up 1.74% and stands at 7.9441. The market indicates that the dollar edged higher on Thursday, mainly beach most of the traders were focused on the potential new US stimulus package that was negotiated in Washington recently.

The Dollar Index is also up. It tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, and as of now, stands at 92.713, meaning it is 0.1% up. The dollar index has been down for several weeks recently, when it touched the lowest level since September 2 overnight. However, as the hopes for stimulus increase, it is said that the price of the currency has a chance to increase again in the coming days as well.

The national currency of Turkey, the Lira, has been going down for several weeks now. Turkey is said to be facing a balance of payment crisis, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions. This is another reason why the price of the national currency of the country is going down.

The negotiations in the USA about the possible stimulus are going forward, which is strengthening the US dollar. However, as top FX brokers on the market have noted, investors are having a very hard time deciding how to open their positions, as the outcome of the upcoming elections in the USA is still very hard to predict. The situation in this regard is very unclear.

Also, experts are saying that there will not be any real decision made regarding the aid before the US elections, most of the experts are saying that the deal will be made after the elections. Also, there is an upcoming new debate between Biden and Trump, which will have further influence on the price of the currency pair.

Prices of USD/TRY Over the Last Few Months

Price of USD/TRY up

As can be seen in the chart above, the price of the currency pair has been going up for some time now. The chart above shows the changing prices of the currency pair from June 16 to today. The candlestick chart shows above indicate that the prices of the currency pair started to increase in the middle of the Summer and since then, the trend has been the same for several months.

As of now, the price of the currency pair stands at very high, and the uptrend continues. One of the main reasons for the current changes in the fact that the hopes for the deal about the stimulus are increasing in the USA. On the other hand, the situation in Turkey is getting worse. The inflation rate is increasing every fast, and in addition to that, the coronavirus is spreading at a very fast pace in the country.

This factor is making the national currency of Turkey go down, and in addition, there also are huge effects from the ongoing events in the region. The situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is affecting the price of Lira a lot, and as can be seen in the chart above, the influence is very bad.

Although the Turkish Lira has had some gains recently. It has started going down once again. It is very close to 8, which is making a lot of investors panic. The Turkish Central Bank, CBRT, is also keeping the rates unchanged, while the TRY is getting weaker because of many reasons, including geopolitical and domestic reasons.

The situation that the Lira is in today is affected by many things, including the direct conflict of Turkey with Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean and the probability of Turkey being involved in the current conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Investors around the world are claiming that the uptrend of the USD will remain for the next couple of days, however, the upcoming presidential debates in the country and the elections which are going to take place on November 3 are most likely to have an impact on the future changes of the currency pair. 

By Charlie Roberts

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